“The left-wing German government is preparing for war!" - This is the opening line of a video by Megafon’s Bence Apáti, in which he talks about German politicians "burning in a war psychosis" instead of working on a peaceful solution to the Russo-Ukrainian war. The video was advertised by Megafon on Facebook between 8-16 March for more than 1 million HUF (2,5k €) and has over 400,000 views.
According to Apáti, "the German leadership is preparing for war", and he backs this up with four examples of recent statements by German politicians or military officers.
These statements are indeed made, but Apáti uses them out of context to spread fear-mongering messages online.
The context reveals that reality is much more nuanced than the video makes it seem.
Let’s look at the false claims closely.
Karl Lauterbach, Germany’s Federal Minister of Health gave an interview to the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung in March 2024. The Federal Ministry of Health also published the interview on its website. The minister touched on several topics (such as the legalization of cannabis and hospital reform) and indeed talked about the need to prepare the health system for a range of possible crises.
Lauterbach says that the Covid-19 crisis has shown that the German health system is not prepared for situations previously thought unthinkable, such as the pandemic. He adds that after the Russian attack on Ukraine, this challenge has become even more important, which is why legislation is being worked on,
"to prepare for the next disaster or eventuality where we have an obligation of support to our military allies - however unlikely that may be."
(The latter case, expressed in German by the word Bündnisfall, would be the case, for example, if NATO's Article 5 on collective defense were to come into force.)
The Minister adds that, just as the new Epidemic Protection Act has prepared for future pandemics, so too must preparations be made for possible military conflicts. The paper then asks Lauterbach if he is not afraid of being accused of scaremongering, as can be seen in Apáti's video. The politician's answer is not just "no" (as quoted in the Megafon-video), but also an explanation:
"no, because it would be silly to say that if we are not prepared for a military conflict, it will not happen. By that logic, we wouldn't need a military either. Doing nothing is not an option."
He adds that if the obligation to support the military alliance were to come into force, Germany would be able to receive wounded from other countries as it has received about a thousand seriously wounded Ukrainians, more than any other European country.
Lauterbach concludes that this legislation needs to be properly prepared and that although discussions with experts are already underway, a draft will not be ready until the summer.
In other words, contrary to what Apáti says, the German draft is not yet ready, and the German health minister is talking about "possible" and "unlikely" conflicts.
Apáti here quotes from an article published in the pro-government biased Hungarian online news site, Index.hu, citing the German newspaper Der Spiegel, which writes that:
Boris Pistorius, the Federal Minister of Defence wants to develop a military service model for Germany that contributes to "general social resilience".
According to an internal document obtained by Spiegel, the Federal Minister of Defence wants to speed up the process of compulsory military service and has asked the ministry to outline the options by 1 April.
However, Apáti does not say whether Pistorius is thinking along the lines of the Scandinavian model, especially the Swedish model: in Sweden, everyone who has completed secondary school is conscripted, but the army only selects men and women who are fit to enlist. In this way, the Swedes have been able to recruit enough volunteers in recent years, Spiegel notes.
However, the paper also reports that this model would hardly be feasible in Germany, because if 10 percent of a graduating high school class joined the army - as in Sweden - the German army would have to train roughly 40,000 soldiers a year, which it cannot do. According to Spiegel, the Federal Minister of Defence spoke of 3-4,000 newly recruited soldiers as a realistic plan at a security conference in Munich.
This is not the first time this idea has been mooted, Deutsche Welle reported late last year, noting that the plan of the Federal Minister of Defence had come under criticism from critics (including the socialists and liberals). At the time, Pistorius said he would look at all options, but that whatever model was chosen, a political majority would be needed to implement it.
In February, the Croatian Minister of Defence also said that he planned to introduce compulsory conscription. In Europe, the following countries have compulsory conscription:
Finland,
Norway,
Sweden,
Denmark,
Lithuania,
Latvia,
Estonia,
Ukraine,
Switzerland,
Austria,
and Greece.
So there is still a lot of uncertainty around the German model of compulsory conscription, and full political support is needed for its implementation.
The German general quoted here is Carsten Breuer, Chief of Defence of Germany, who gave an interview to Welt am Sonntag on 10 February, a summary of the interview was published in the Kyiv Independent.
In the interview, General Breuer is asked when the German army will be ready for a war situation. Breuer replies that preparation is a long process, but that there is not much time now, because, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the threat of war is hanging over our heads. He continues,
"If we follow what the analysts are saying and look at the potential military threat Russia poses, we have five to eight years to prepare. That doesn't mean there will be war. But it is possible. And being a soldier, I say: in five years we have to be ready for war."
Breuer also notes from Putin's statements that there is a desire for Russia to expand beyond Ukraine. And given Russia's military potential, the possibility of a large-scale war is now growing.
So the General did not say that there would be war in five years, he said that there was a chance of war and that Germany's army should be ready for it in five years.
Apáti is referring to the leaked footage from the beginning of March, released by Margarita Simonyan, the head of the Russian state-owned RT television channel. In the recording, four officers of the German air force, the Luftwaffe, can be heard discussing the possibility of deploying Taurus cruise missiles in Ukraine and taking out certain objects. The possible targeting of a bridge is also discussed in the recording, most likely the Kerch bridge linking the annexed Crimean peninsula with the Russian border region of Krasnodar, writes Deutsche Welle.
The Germans have confirmed that the footage is real, but could not say whether it was edited or manipulated before publication. A few days later, Boris Pistorius, the Federal Minister of Defence accused Russia of waging an "information war" aimed at dividing German society.
So the leaked recording is real, and the German military officers are discussing the deployment of Taurus cruise missiles in Ukraine.
However, there was no mention of them being deployed in any way by the Germans themselves, only that Germany may yet send missiles to Ukraine. Germany has so far not sent Tauruses to Ukraine because of fears that Ukrainian forces might use them against targets on Russian territory.
Source of cover photo: Apáti Bence/Facebook
Translated by Benedek Totth
